基于证据权重的PFOS致癌性整合评估与剂量反应分析
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1.四川大学华西公共卫生学院,食品安全监测与风险评估四川省重点实验室;2.国家乳业技术创新中心;3.国家卫生健康委员会食品安全风险评估重点实验室,中国医学科学院食品安全创新单元,国家食品安全风险评估中心

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国家乳业技术创新中心项目(2023-JSGG-25);国家重点研发计划资助 (2023YFF1103804)


Carcinogenicity assessment of PFOS based on weight of evidence and dose-response analysis
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1.West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Food Safety Monitoring and Risk Assessment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province;2.National Center of Technology Innovation for Dairy;3.NHC Key Laboratory of Food Safety Risk Assessment, Chinese Academy of Medical Science Research Unit, China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment

Fund Project:

National Dairy Technology Innovation Center Project (Grant No. 2023-JSGG-25);National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFF1103804)

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    摘要:

    摘要:目的 运用证据权重法评估全氟辛烷磺酸(Perfluorooctane Sulfonate ,PFOS)致癌相关文献质量,通过剂量-反应关系揭示其致癌风险。方法 在中英文数据库中系统检索截至2024年6月的PFOS与癌症相关的人类流行病学研究,纳排后依据毒理学数据可靠性与相关性评价指南进行文献赋分评级,结合meta分析,采用癌症斜率因子(Cancer slope factor,CSF)法对PFOS导致乳腺癌的风险进行剂量反应分析。结果 共检索到2532篇人类流行病学研究,经筛选得到35篇有效文献,可靠性评价结果表明22篇为高质量,13篇为中等质量;相关性评价等级为“A/B”或“B”的文献32篇。经meta分析表明,血清PFOS低浓度(<4.77ng/mL;OR=1.46,95%CI:1.18-1.80)和中浓度(>4.77ng/mL且≤15.67 ng/mL;OR=1.07,95%CI:1.04-1.10)时均与乳腺癌风险呈正相关。CSF分析结果表明,人群PFOS外暴露每增加1 ng/kg BW/d,乳腺癌发病风险增量为1.64×10-3。结论 证据权重法结合meta分析表明,PFOS暴露与一般人群乳腺癌发病风险存在明确的剂量-反应关系,提示PFOS暴露可能与乳腺癌风险增加相关。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Objective To assess the quality of the literature related to the carcinogenicity of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) by using the weight of evidence method, and to reveal its carcinogenic risk through the dose-response relationship. Methods A systematic search was conducted for relevant literature on human epidemiologic studies related to PFOS and cancer up to June 2024, after evaluation and secondary screening based on the guidelines for evaluating the relevance and reliability of toxicological data developed by the China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, the dose-response for breast cancer risk analysis was performed using the cancer slope factor (CSF) method in conjunction with the results of meta-analyses of population-based epidemiological studies. Results From the 2532 retrieved human epidemiological articles, 35 valid articles were screened, of which 22 were high-quality evidence and 13 were of moderate quality in terms of the reliability. 32 articles were graded as “A/B” or “B” in terms of the relevance. Meta-analysis showed that both low serum PFOS levels (<4.77 ng/mL; OR=1.46, 95% CI: 1.18-1.80) and moderate serum PFOS levels (>4.77 ng/mL and ≤15.67 ng/mL; OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10) were positively associated with the risk of breast cancer. The CSF results indicated that for every 1 ng/kg BW/d increment in external PFOS exposure, the attributable risk of breast cancer incidence increased by 1.64×10?3. Conclusion Evidence from a weight-of-evidence evaluation integrated with meta-analysis confirmed a significant dose-response association between PFOS exposure and population-level breast cancer incidence, suggesting that PFOS exposure may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-21
  • 录用日期:2025-11-18
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