基于大米中镉暴露水平的多种评估模型的比较
作者:
作者单位:

1.华中科技大学同济医学院公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,湖北 武汉 430030;2.国家食品安全风险评估中心卫生部食品安全风险评估重点实验室,北京 100022

作者简介:

刘佳琳 女 在读硕士生 研究方向为食品安全风险评估 E-mail:15927092307@163.com

通讯作者:

王彝白纳 女 副研究员 研究方向为食品安全风险评估 E-mail:wangyibaina@cfsa.net.cn

中图分类号:

R155

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1603105)


The comparison of three risk assessment models based on cadmium exposure level in rice
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Wuhan 430030, China;2.Key Laboratory of Food Safety Risk Assessment of Ministry of Health, China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, China

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    摘要:

    目的 以估算长期经大米摄入的镉暴露水平为例,比较食品污染物暴露评估过程中常用的3种统计模型,即观测个体均数(OIM)模型、贝塔二项正态分布(BBN)模型和非参数模型的优缺点。方法 以大米、镉、膳食等为中文关键词,Rice、Food和Cadmium等为英文关键词,检索中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台和PubMed数据库中关于我国大米中镉浓度的文献,并结合一项中国营养调查中3 d 24 h膳食调查获得的食物消费量数据,分别采用上述3种模型,估算我国居民及各年龄性别组人群长期经大米摄入镉的暴露水平。结果 全人群OIM模型显示我国人群经大米导致的镉暴露量第2.5~97.5百分位数(P2.5~P97.5)为0.081~0.576 μg/(kg·BW·d),非参数模型的结果为0.081~0.573 μg/(kg·BW·d),BBN模型结果为0.104~0.611 μg/(kg·BW·d)。不同人群中OIM模型、非参数模型与BBN模型估算的镉暴露水平的平均值相近,其中全人群中3种模型均值分别为0.278、0.277和0.278 μg/(kg·BW·d)。结论 在原始数据充足的条件下,非参数模型与OIM模型评估结果近似,而BBN模型可以通过扣除个体内消费频率差异,对经食品污染物的暴露评估结果更保守。

    Abstract:

    Objective The advantages and disadvantages of three statistical models commonly used in food contaminant exposure assessment, namely the observed individual means (OIM) model, the beta-abinomial and normal (BBN) model and the non-parametric model were compared by an example of the estimation of long-term exposure to cadmium via rice.Methods Rice, cadmium and diet were used as Chinese and English keywords to search the literature on cadmium concentration in rice in China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform and PubMed database. Long-term levels of exposure to cadmium via rice for the total population and age groups in China were estimated by combining partial consumption frequency data obtained from the Chinese nutrition survey.Results In the total population, the OIM model showed that the 2.5th to 97.5th percentile (P2.5、P97.5) of the exposure to heavy metal Cd in rice was 0.081-0.576 μg/(kg·BW·d), the non-parametric model result was 0.081-0.573 μg/(kg·BW·d), and the BBN model result was 0.104-0.611 μg/(kg·BW·d). The average results of the OIM model, non-parametric model and BBN model in different populations were close. The average values of the three models in the total population were 0.278, 0.277 and 0.278 μg/(kg·BW·d), respectively.Conclusion With large sample data, non-parametric models have similar assessment results to the OIM model, while BBN models can allow for a more conservative assessment of exposure by subtracting differences in consumption frequency within individuals, and better evaluate the long-term exposure level of pollutants.

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刘佳琳,魏晟,白莉,王彝白纳.基于大米中镉暴露水平的多种评估模型的比较[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2022,34(3):459-466.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-07
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