Preliminary investigation of quantitative food microbial risk ranking model and its verification
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(1.Jilin Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jilin Changchun 130062,China;2.NHC Key Laboratory of Food Safety Risk Assessment, China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, China)

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    Abstract:

    Objective To develop the quantitative food microbial risk ranking model in Jilin Province and further verify it. Methods Based on the real consumption data, parameters for cross-contamination and cooking habits, the food pathogen monitoring result from Jilin Province in 2014 was used as an example, a deterministic risk ranking model and matrix were used to prioritize the microbial hazards and food types combination, and Risk Ranger was used to further verify the risk. Results There was medium health risk caused by Salmonella in marinated raw pork and Listeria monocytogenes in milk and sandwich. 41.67% of the illness was salmonellosis and 69.06% of the cases were attributed to the Chinese vegetarian salad and 75.22% of the cases were caused by under cooked food. Risk Ranger further verified that priority should be given to the risk assessment of the “marinated raw pork-Salmonella” combination and under cooked food and interventions were the key aspects of the assessment. According to the annual incidence rate, about 36 000 people suffered from foodborne diseases each year among Jilin's 27 million population. Conclusion A quantitative risk ranking model for food microbial was preliminary developed in Jilin Province which needs further modification on the model parameters for more accurate estimation.

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ZHAI Qianqian, ZHU Jianghui, FANG Chiguang, BAI Guangda. Preliminary investigation of quantitative food microbial risk ranking model and its verification[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2019,31(3):259-265.

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History
  • Received:March 04,2019
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 09,2019
  • Published: