Objective The risks of Bacillus cereus in commercial fermented bean curd were compared using the existing modified exponential model, log-logistic and Gamma-Weibull model. Methods The initial contamination level of Bacillus cereus in commercial fermented bean curd was obtained by sampling data from a certain city. The risk of commercial fermented bean curd was calculated according to the modified exponential, log-logistic and Gamma-Weibull models. Results Using the average initial contamination level of Bacillus cereus in commercial fermented bean curd as the consumption dose, the Gamma-Weibull model calculated the risk slightly lower than the other two models. Using the highest initial contamination level as the consumption dose, the Gamma-Weibull model calculated the risk slightly higher than the other two models. Conclusion This study could provide research method and ideas for analyzing the risk of other microorganisms using Bacillus cereus risk assessment as an example.