Space-time scan statistical analysis of incident detection exploring clusters for wild mushroom poisoning in Yunnan Province
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(Division of Nutrition and Food Hygiene,Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yunnan Kunming 650022,China)

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    Abstract:

    To explore the valuable of space-time scan statistics for detecting the clustering of wild mushroom poisoning and to provide early warning for officials.Methods The approach is based on both retrospective and prospective scan statistics which were respectively tested with data in 2011 and 2012; and the analysis was implemented at the county level. Compare the results of traditional epidemiology analyses and retrospective analysis and compare the results of prospective analysis and real-time monitoring. Results Based on the retrospective space-time analysis, in 2011, the clustering time of wild mushroom poisoning was from June to August,the most significant cluster was from 12th, July to 18th, July and occurred in Qiubei County, in the Wenshan Municipal area. The number of expected was 0.051. LLR(Log Likelihood Ratio)value was 149.330 and P=0.001. In 2012, the most significant cluster was from 5th , July to 18th, July and occurred in Malipo County and Xichou County. The number expected was 0.057. LLR(Log Likelihood Ratio)value was 91.767 and P=0.001. When analyzing the early warning results from 1st, June to 1st, July, we found that the warning signals were set out daily from 1st, June to 1st , July. Within the 7 days scan parameter, the number of expected cases was 0.039, as calculated by the model. LLR(Log Likelihood Ratio)value was 24.234 and P=0.001.Conclusion The retrospective space-time scan statistics could take advantage of temporal and spatial information to make detecting results more accurate and effective and prospective space-time scan statistic could be applied to provide an early warning analysis.

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WANG Xiao-wen, ZHAO Shi-wen, LIU Zhi-tao, YU Si-yang, LU Lin. Space-time scan statistical analysis of incident detection exploring clusters for wild mushroom poisoning in Yunnan Province[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2016,28(3):295-300.

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  • Received:November 03,2015
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 02,2016
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